🧵 Untitled Thread
Anonymous at Sat, 16 Mar 2024 11:50:59 UTC No. 16081034
The other day i was hearing from a family member stories of my uncle who made his way from being a simple sommelier to the director in charge of a big casino and all the strange and talented people that he encountered in his life and some interesting tactics that they learn in gambling, the ones that makes it illegal for them to enter in other casinos as players.
That said one thing he said that i didnt understand as he was rambling at that point is the reason why betting black/red in roulettes is bad because it is not exactly 50/50 and you can't do like the "if i loose i will bet the same and double the amount to make up for my loss" strategy. Is it because european roulettes have 37 numbers, one of them a green 0? so its not exactly 50/50? Also i searched that americans have 38 numbers and 2 zeroes so even less possibilities betting red/black.
I ask because i am assuming this but my level of maths is prealgebra -1 and i didnt hear him properly the other day.
Anonymous at Sat, 16 Mar 2024 11:57:39 UTC No. 16081040
>>16081034
You can place multiple bets in roulette and have a proportional bet on green to effectively be at 50% but this doesn't matter because your grandpa is wrong.
Fidelio !xh1Wbgj8FY at Sat, 16 Mar 2024 12:32:40 UTC No. 16081077
>>16081040
why
Anonymous at Sat, 16 Mar 2024 13:09:55 UTC No. 16081134
>>16081034
Ignoring the green zeroes, they just make the situation worse, betting black/red does not work. The strategy is that if you lose, you double your bet on the next spin, and keep doing that until you win.
Doing the math, if you have to bet n times before you win, the amount of chips it cost you is [math]1 + 2 + ... + 2^{n-1} = 2^{n}-1[/math], and you would win [math]2^{n}[/math] chips. So your profit would always be 1 chip even if you have a bad run and have to bet thousands of chips before you eventually win. So this method seemingly always wins even if your profit will be on average less than a single chip.
Casinos aren't stupid, they use a simple method to stop this. They cap the amount of money you can bet on black/red and force a minimum table bet size. For example the minimum bet might be $10 with a limit of $1000 on black/red. You only have to have a string of 6 losses in a row, doubling your bet each time, before the strategy now fails and you lose a shitload of money.
Anonymous at Sat, 16 Mar 2024 15:11:27 UTC No. 16081308
>>16081034
>Is it because european roulettes have 37 numbers, one of them a green 0? so its not exactly 50/50?
The green reduces your win probability to below 50%
Your chance of winning by betting on black being: 18 (black numbers) /36 (total numbers) = 50%, this goes down to 18/37 (48%) with a green number, meaning you'll lose 52% of the time when there is a green. When there is 2 zero's your winrate becomes ~47%.
The odds are always stacked against you since the casino control the conditions of play. Even when they introduce new rules and side bets they still win as they've done the math.
You can get lucky and win. The casino will let you win since they need to give you and others a reason to come back and keep playing over a long time horizon. If you win too big or even consistently they kick you out and dont let you cash out. They dont give out chips because it's easier for players, they give out chips for more control over the players.
I admire casinos for their use of probability but I hate gambling since its always unfair for the players. The worst is slots and sports/general betting, at least in the other games you can make a decision to change the outcome.
Doubling doesn't work since like >>16081134 mentioned, they impose table limits. Also it assumes you have unlimited funds to keep on doubling if you hit a long enough loss streak and at that point why bother with gambling?
Anonymous at Sun, 17 Mar 2024 06:53:31 UTC No. 16082622
>>16081040
Green has losing odds as well, you can't make up the difference by placing extra bets. holy shit peak stupidity right here.
Anonymous at Sun, 17 Mar 2024 07:11:02 UTC No. 16082636
>>16081308
Yawn. Casinos gonna hate me.
Use a single betting unit. When you win, reset to the single betting unit. If you lose, then leave. The trick is to live long enough for the odds to swing in your favor and to have effectively 0 in when they don't.
Anonymous at Sun, 17 Mar 2024 07:38:29 UTC No. 16082649
>>16081034
Roulette is a game where it makes absolutely no difference what you do. You essentially pay the casino 1/37 (or 1/19) of what you bet, no matter exactly how. All the other mechanics are only to distract you. If you try doubling your bet, casinos do not mind, sooner or later you get a losing streak when you run out of money, and it makes you bet (and thus lose) huge sums.
Anonymous at Sun, 17 Mar 2024 08:16:54 UTC No. 16082685
>>16082622
Bet | $18 on either red or black| AND bet $1 on green
Suddenly you're at 50%, actually a little higher, brainlet.
Anonymous at Sun, 17 Mar 2024 08:20:13 UTC No. 16082688
>>16082622
And I said his grandpa was wrong by the way, I didn't say it would make up the difference merely get him to that 50% which is what he said his gramps said was needed, not me, hence once again why I said the old man was wrong, smoothbrain. If you want to be mad at someone be mad at OP, not me.
Anonymous at Sun, 17 Mar 2024 12:44:33 UTC No. 16082968
>>16081308
>The worst is [...] sports/general betting
Yeah the worst is of course the one where you can have positive EV
Anonymous at Sun, 17 Mar 2024 13:43:20 UTC No. 16083014
>>16081034
Roulette is completely random with a quadrillion different inputs, the odds of you getting one or the other are exactly the same