🗑️ 🧵 The Youngness Paradox
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 22:03:09 UTC No. 16238466
Alan Guth, the theoretical physicist at MIT who first developed the theory of cosmic inflation, developed his own solution for the Fermi Paradox that could be harder to believe than the simulated universe argument.
In a paper called “Eternal Inflation and its Implications,” Guth used the physics of inflation to elegantly show that each universe (by the way, we’re assuming the existence of an infinite number of universes) likely has only one advanced civilization.
Here’s how the argument goes: according to Guth, cosmic inflation spawns an infinite number of pocket universes at an extraordinary rate. In fact, every second number of pocket universes increases by a factor of 1037. Therefore, Guth argues, we can assume that young pocket universes vastly outnumber older universes. In other words, the average universe is remarkably young.
Guth then postulates that there is a minimum time—let’s call it T—required for intelligent life like ours to develop. Because we’ve already developed, we know that the age of our universe is greater than or equal to T.
Let’s imagine there is another civilization in our universe more advanced then ours, and for the sake of argument, let’s assume that it is one second more advanced. If the minimum time for our civilization to develop is T, the minimum time for this more advanced civilization to develop is greater than or equal to T + 1s.
Because the number of universes that satisfy the T requirement is 1037 times the number of universes that satisfy the T + 1s requirement, and because we know only that we live in a universe that satisfies the T requirement, it is extremely unlikely that our universe also satisfies the T+1s requirement. It’s unlikely, therefore, that there is an alien civilization in our own universe even one second more advanced than ours.
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 22:10:57 UTC No. 16238479
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 22:18:32 UTC No. 16238487
>>16238466
It doesn't take time T for a civilization to develop. It takes a set of conditions S, among which is a minimum amount of time given the other conditions. This is much less than the age of the universe.
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 22:52:37 UTC No. 16238549
>>16238466
Why is the "solution" to the Fermi "paradox" never just "human observational technology sucks"?
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 22:54:26 UTC No. 16238554
>>16238549
Because that isn't true.
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 22:58:26 UTC No. 16238562
>>16238554
Ah, of course not.
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:00:30 UTC No. 16238564
>>16238562
So, no civilization in the universe uses EM.
WHAT A FUCKING IDIOT YOU ARE!
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:02:54 UTC No. 16238569
>>16238466
That retard has lost his mind
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:03:08 UTC No. 16238570
>>16238564
What a retard. It doesn't matter if they did. You wouldn't detect it with your tin can telephone.
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:04:29 UTC No. 16238574
>>16238570
There's no shortage of markers. We haven't found any of them on any planet. All you can say that if life does exist, it's nothing like on Earth.
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:11:30 UTC No. 16238577
>>16238574
Your faith in modern soience is disgusting and you are a low IQ pleb.
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:18:52 UTC No. 16238584
>>16238564
>no civilization in the known universe
At some point their emissions bleed into the cosmic background radiation. That limits the civilizations we have a chance to observe from known universe to, dunno, probably the milkyway. In addition to space, time is also a limiting factor. Because we can only observe those emissions that arrive on our planet while we have the technology to observe them. There might be a 500.000 year old spacefaring civilization. If they are 1.000.000 light years away from us we are unable to know.
There is also another limiting factor which is never going to be considered by those who believe the Fermi paradox holds value. Ignoring that factor is a prerequisite for the mindset and inherent in the formulation of the paradox. Are space-faring civilizations even possible? The Fermi paradox requires that these civilizations can exist. But what if physics is limited in such a way that planet-evolved life has no resource effective, technically feasible way of becoming space-faring? Then every advanced civilization would have the resources it has on its home planet to evolve with, built its civilization and then decline again once they run out. How long will we humans be able to keep up our highly technological society? How long before we run out of a critical resource, likely cheap fuel? A few centuries, a few millennia? Even if we make our eroi positive energy sources last 100.000 more years that's pretty much nothing compared to the galactic timespans the Fermi paradox needs to work with.
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:21:46 UTC No. 16238589
>>16238584
The final point is unfalsifiable. If we make it to the Moon, you'll say getting to Mars is impossible. If we get to Mars, you'll say getting to Jupiter is impossible. If we get to Jupiter...
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:23:48 UTC No. 16238593
>>16238577
Science got us this far, not Christianity.
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:39:13 UTC No. 16238620
I think there's life and could be common but here are some thoughts. What if it's just very far away. The organic material that sometimes ends up in space and then lands on other planets would need to end up in orbit of those planets. It needs to be a habitable planet. So, likely a crap is going to travel past plenty of habitable planets just missing them until it hits a planet that may or may not be habitable. And it would take time to travel so far, so it would reduce likelihood. Also one issue is for advancement you might need billions of people. I think if all the resources were available and also good like for example Japanese iron is shit, you could maybe get super advanced with a small number of organisms, but the smarter you are the more you procreate. So, by the time there's some real advancement there are just too many organisms and hit the exact bottleneck we're at right now. We are advanced but not everybody gets a teleporter and magic food machine and our resources are running out too quickly for us to make the advancement. Forget about aliens right now, our only hope for our own survival is to either get there, or control ourselves. We still need a working class to run steel mills but other than that we need useful people. If you can't justify your existence in some way, you're not just not contributing but you're getting us closer to destruction faster
Anonymous at Sun, 16 Jun 2024 23:55:34 UTC No. 16238646
>>16238589
You could falsify it by creating a civilization that is space-faring stable. A self sustaining human population outside of our solar system either on a planet or on a (huge) ship. Being capable of reaching Mars for a few decades before eroi hits and we can no longer sustain the required technology does not cut it. Because it's not just a single Mars mission. We need to maintain the universities, factories, etc. that got us to Mars until Mars is at a point where it could build up to its own interplanetary colonization efforts without earth. Is that possible with the resources we have on earth?
Anonymous at Mon, 17 Jun 2024 00:10:11 UTC No. 16238671
>>16238593
Fermi attracts midwits like flies to shit. You literally aren't even intelligent to understand the details of the argument. You just know you're right because your precious priesthood suggested it.
Anonymous at Mon, 17 Jun 2024 01:32:51 UTC No. 16238746
>>16238479
Fpbp
Anonymous at Mon, 17 Jun 2024 07:18:55 UTC No. 16239111
>>16238466
>it is extremely unlikely that our universe also satisfies the T+1s requirement
but it satisfies the T-1s requirement, and the T-2s requirement, etc. Therefore, there should be plenty of advanced civilizations out there, even if just a little more primitive than ours.
Anonymous at Mon, 17 Jun 2024 15:58:44 UTC No. 16239548
>>16238466
Well yes, that is all very valid and totally real, but how many pocket universes can dance on top of a pinhead? And if theres no other advanced civilizations in our pocket universe, how did you get that anal probe?
Anonymous at Mon, 17 Jun 2024 16:18:53 UTC No. 16239578
>>16238466
I just want random extra terrestrials to show up on earth one day. Doesn't matter if they're friendly or want to kill us, chaos of them existing would be hilarious in itself
Anonymous at Mon, 17 Jun 2024 19:02:30 UTC No. 16239792
There is exactly 0 reason to broadcast shit to outer space. In fact doing so could jeopardize your survival.
There. I solved the Fermi paradox.