🧵 Untitled Thread
Anonymous at Sun, 7 Jul 2024 21:01:11 UTC No. 16271942
ITT: times when movies got simple math wrong.
I'll start:
https://youtu.be/CYyUuIXzGgI?si=d24
The monty hall is a simple problem yet the writers completely misunderstand it and give the wrong answer.
It would be largely correct in the usual formulation of the Monty hall problem, but it's wrong in this situation given that the lecturer admits the possibility that the presenter tries to deceive the player by opening the door because they want them to switch.
Anonymous at Sun, 7 Jul 2024 21:20:24 UTC No. 16271967
Anonymous at Sun, 7 Jul 2024 21:45:06 UTC No. 16271998
>>16271942
Assuming the host is a bad actor and will offer switches to winning doors, at what frequency must he present a goat curtain with the option to switch for the optimal play to not be to never switch.
50% of the time.
So even in the scenario of a rigger, it is still optimal to switch.
He will always offer the switch if you selected the winning curtain, but he must offer the option to switch some percentage of the time you receive the goat so that his strategy can't be exploited. In this case, that means that the odds of selecting 1 in 3 must never change over all games. This is the illusion of choich.
Anonymous at Sun, 7 Jul 2024 21:58:42 UTC No. 16272022
>>16271998
If the host always offers the possibility to switch when you pick a goat, and never when you pick a car, then it's never optimal to switch.
>He will always offer the switch if you selected the winning curtain
That's not part of the problem statement. A part of the problem statement is that the host might want to trick you, meaning he might offer to switch specifically when you pick a goat and not when you pick a car.
raspberry pie at Mon, 8 Jul 2024 02:13:31 UTC No. 16272353
>>16272022
I would rather have a goat fren than a new car
Anonymous at Mon, 8 Jul 2024 02:49:09 UTC No. 16272379
If you get one door taken out as a goat, then the other two doors are 50/50 no matter which you chose before. Simple as that.
If you try saying "well the guy would only offer the door if he wants to trick you" then you've brought psychology and the voluntary actions of people into the mix which is complete bullshit. Without being in the mind of the host and knowing their intentions, it's still a 50/50 crapshoot.
Anonymous at Tue, 9 Jul 2024 00:32:53 UTC No. 16273488
In one scene Kevin Spacey’s character says the kid found a better way of approximating polynomial roots than Newton’s method. It just seems odd to me that he doesn’t give this the attention and praise it deserves, treating it like a digression from his main point and not mentioning this fields medal worthy accomplishment again.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 03:21:05 UTC No. 16275531
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 03:49:14 UTC No. 16275552
>>16273488
i found a better way than the Newton method in college. basically, for one iteration of my method, you do two iterations of the Newton method. it converges approximately twice as fast as Newton.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 04:45:22 UTC No. 16275583
But doesn't the host always offer a switch and always reveal a goat? What's this about him choosing when to offer you a switch?
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 07:05:11 UTC No. 16275680
Best bait thread on /sci/ right now. I guess monty hall stuff is overdone but you have a fresh take on it. And "fields medal worthy accomplishment"? Classic