🧵 Untitled Thread
Anonymous at Tue, 9 Jul 2024 22:33:41 UTC No. 16275154
Is card counting real? What's the verdict? Sure you can predict certain cards are "due" but can you really predict which player is gonna get those cards? Why aren't these card counters millionaires?
Anonymous at Tue, 9 Jul 2024 22:48:11 UTC No. 16275182
Anonymous at Tue, 9 Jul 2024 23:16:47 UTC No. 16275232
>>16275154
>Have $3,000,000 of disposable income
>Over the course of several years you finally have a few lucky nights (pretend the bad nights never happened)
>Persecution complex thinking they're celebrities that casino security is out to get (Casinos will straight up encourage you to "count cards").
YES! THE POWER PREVAILS. I AM AN ADVANTAGE PLAYER. No. You're not gonna go to a casino with $20 and turn it into $100000 in one night.
Anonymous at Tue, 9 Jul 2024 23:21:34 UTC No. 16275239
>>16275154
>Sure you can predict certain cards are "due" but can you really predict which player is gonna get those cards?
irrelevant since you’re only concerned with what cards you get and what cards the dealer gets
>Why aren't these card counters millionaires?
some probably are, but you’ll never know because they don’t go around advertising it. everyone else has a shitty system, gets caught by the ex-cheats, or just plain sucks at blackjack
Anonymous at Tue, 9 Jul 2024 23:38:11 UTC No. 16275268
>>16275154
>Is card counting real?
Yes. It's also illegal. (Guess who made the rules about this in Nevada.)
>Sure you can predict certain cards are "due" but can you really predict which player is gonna get those cards?
It works far better in games where you're playing against other people instead of the house. Statistically you will lose sometimes, but you will win more often than you otherwise would, meaning you ultimately come out on top each night.
>Why aren't these card counters millionaires?
It would take a lot of nights to become a millionaire. If you're winning far too often night after night, the casino will ban you permanently even if they can't prove you're cheating. They tell the other casinos, too.
Stop guessing start learning at Tue, 9 Jul 2024 23:40:33 UTC No. 16275270
>>16275154
Op learn satistical and probability theory. And stop asking dumb questions.
Anonymous at Tue, 9 Jul 2024 23:53:02 UTC No. 16275290
>>16275154
You still have a shitty chance of winning. You go from having a 1% chance of winning to 2%. "Card counters" who win will almost always attribute their win to their super duper irl hacking card counting skills instead of you know...luck.
Anonymous at Tue, 9 Jul 2024 23:57:01 UTC No. 16275299
>>16275154
Perfect card counting has a small edge over the house. It's not huge and in practice you're probably not going to play perfectly for dozens of hours in a row so it's not really much better than even
It's still a "real" strategy though since you are supposed to be at a disadvantage in any casino game
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 00:01:43 UTC No. 16275307
>>16275154
>21 (2008)
>counting cards is literally the Monty Hall problem.
Not even interesting.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 00:05:45 UTC No. 16275312
>>16275290
You're retarded. Winning percent depends on the game played. I can guarantee you blackjack doesn't have a 1% chance to beat the house or nobody would play it. Your right, the house wins more often but not 99% to 1%. Atleast in blackjack.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 00:06:35 UTC No. 16275313
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 00:14:44 UTC No. 16275328
>>16275154
>Sure you can predict certain cards are "due" but can you really predict which player is gonna get those cards?
That's why you don't play 1 on 1 against the dealer but instead have like 5 hands, all maxxed bet. Even then you can still lose hard.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 01:30:43 UTC No. 16275419
>>16275268
>Yes. It's also illegal.
It does work (barely), but it's not illegal anywhere in the US even Vegas. They can choose to kick you out, but they legally have to give you your payout and there are no legal repercussions.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 01:32:46 UTC No. 16275423
>>16275419
>it's not illegal anywhere in the US even Vegas
I did not know this. I stand corrected.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 01:34:20 UTC No. 16275425
>>16275419
Can confirm. A friend of mine is an oldfag who used count cards and got bounced from a few casinos doing it when he got caught, but never arrested. Now he does sports betting and drinks all day. The casinos started using too many decks to make it practical, apparently.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 01:40:45 UTC No. 16275432
>>16275425
>The casinos started using too many decks to make it practical, apparently.
True, they started using like 6 decks in the shoe at a time so card counting stopped making sense because now there could be 24 aces for example. And a lot of casinos are switching the payout from 3-2 to 6-5 so you'd have to play many more hands to make the same money from any advantage you have. Then you've got all the modern security and monitoring of what how you play so you're probably going to get harassed these days.
But at least it does statistically work.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 01:49:29 UTC No. 16275444
>>16275432
People wish they would only have six these days. 8 decks with ~50% penetration are common and more places are using continuous shufflers which make counting impossible.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 02:05:27 UTC No. 16275467
>>16275154
It's "real" in that you can track a minority of cards which marginally increases your odds. It's bullshit in that not enough information is ever revealed to overcome a casinos edge
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 07:55:45 UTC No. 16275703
>>16275154
>Casinos will straight up encourage you to "count cards"
No, they definitely don't let people track the cards with pen and paper like they do with roulette number and they certainly ban people who count cards to their advantage.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 08:16:48 UTC No. 16275721
>>16275154
I had a friend try to become a card counter. I told him he was an idiot. Card counting is real and it absolutely works. I told him the problem was that the casinos won't allow him to do it for long before banning him from playing. So he learns it and applies it. Makes some money. The casinos then ban him. baka. So obvious. It really showed me the issue with most people being retards isn't even because of their lack of intelligence but due to their over optimism and desire to live in a delusional bubble where they can believe that they're sooo cool and full of rizz and super successful.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 08:19:08 UTC No. 16275722
>>16275312
He meant you have 50.5% vs 49.5% for the house you dumbass. baka
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 08:39:42 UTC No. 16275742
>>16275313
So when to start betting big?
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 14:02:43 UTC No. 16276014
>>16275154
the fact that they kick you out if they think you're doing it should clue you in
bodhi at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 14:09:06 UTC No. 16276021
>>16275154
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_B
https://fmovies24.to/movie/21-n2wn/
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 14:50:49 UTC No. 16276061
>>16275290
Brother, blackjack has 99.5% ROI. You have 0 clue what you are talking about.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 14:57:02 UTC No. 16276067
>>16275722
>You still have a shitty chance of winning. You go from having a 1% chance of winning to 2%.
So after counting cards he has 51-49 for the house? You are very intelligent
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 15:35:30 UTC No. 16276097
If you guys are so smart why aren’t you grinding all your money on 100.65% RTP Video Poker?
https://www.vpfree2.com/casino/plaz
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 17:05:04 UTC No. 16276177
>>16276061
Yeah, but only if the tables arent implementing bullshit rules to stack odds in their favor like
>6/5 blackjack
>no double after splitting
I swear last time I went to Vegas I couldn't find a real blackjack table
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 19:30:21 UTC No. 16276354
>>16275722
He worded that pretty poorly then.
Anonymous at Wed, 10 Jul 2024 19:35:55 UTC No. 16276365
games have calculated return to player values (RTPs) that are calculated based on best strategy
they represent how much money you are likely to get back per money you put in
a typical slot machine has an RTP of 95%
blackjack tends to be higher, but only because they assume most people will play with suboptimal strategy
this is also the reason they give out those strategy cards, so they can't be accused of cheating you of your RTP promised
card counting is usually not considered in the best strategy (though it can be) so using card counting can put your above 100% RTP, or in other words, a situation where the house won't make their law of large numbers guaranteed winnings, which is obviously a nono
they used to just catch you and ban you, but now they simply bake the assessment of card counting's effect into the RTP so that even with card counting you still lose money on average
these are fun if you're unfamiliar with this stuff
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blac
https://www.beatingbonuses.com/hous
and a fun bonus fact, those calculators are accepted as methods of validating RTPs, even though they're just some guy's project on the internet
they have been incorrect under certain circumstances with unusual combinations of rulesets, and don't always agree with eachother
Anonymous at Thu, 11 Jul 2024 12:44:35 UTC No. 16277247
>>16276365
The Wizard of Odds (Michael Shackleford) is a UNLV professor and has done made expected value reports for companies trying to sell their games.
Anonymous at Thu, 11 Jul 2024 12:48:54 UTC No. 16277249
>>16275154
>NOOOO YOU CAN'T USE YOUR BRAIN IN THIS GAME, THAT'S CHEATING!
Anonymous at Thu, 11 Jul 2024 13:12:30 UTC No. 16277268
>>16275154
I spent a year deep diving card counting for profits and found out why it's not a more common things. Casino's can't prevent card counting but they are VERY VERY good at spotting it via you winning instead of losing. Their computers, cameras, pit bosses, and AI backend is watching you like a hawk and THE SECOND you start winning instead of losing it flags you and they "back you off" and will tell you that you are now banned from playing blackjack at their casino. They will send your high resolution facial recognition profile to all casinos as a known card counter and the AI security system will flag you the second you enter a casino.
Casinos never lose more than a handful of dollars to discover you are a card counter and then you're burned. So "professional card counters" spend more time traveling to far flung casinos and inventing spy level disguises then learning to count cards. Some times they go to some small Indian casino and the pit boss tries to back room them and rob all the chips back. It's not really worth it and like I said the casino has no obligation to let you bet. The second you start winning to much they just ask you to leave no matter the reason. The intelligence apparatus owned and operated by casinos worldwide is vast and fast moving.
>tl:dr
>Card counting doesn't really work, but not for the reasons you'd think.
Anonymous at Thu, 11 Jul 2024 13:47:39 UTC No. 16277302
>>16277247
Adjunct professor, but yes I know, I've used his calculator to validate games for regulators myself
The BeatingBonuses one has made it into use too, because it covers rulesets that WoO doesn't
The calculators themselves are unvalidated, and I don't think the source is even available, so the root of many published blackjack RTPs is appeal to authority
Anonymous at Thu, 11 Jul 2024 19:49:15 UTC No. 16277758
>>16275742
Divide the count by the estimated number of decks remaining in the shoe for the "true count". It's much more complicated than betting big when the true count is high enough, you completely adjust your strategy. more here
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blac
Anonymous at Thu, 11 Jul 2024 19:50:23 UTC No. 16277764
>>16276177
>I swear last time I went to Vegas I couldn't find a real blackjack table
El Cortez has the best blackjack table. I think Henderson has some OK tables too