🧵 Future of the Outer Space Treaty

Anonymous at Sun, 14 Jul 2024 15:41:03 UTC No. 16281419

The Future of the Outer Space Treaty**

How long can we expect the Outer Space Treaty (OST) to remain relevant? As we stand at the dawn of space travel, the future holds many uncertainties, yet we have ample history to guide our expectations. This decade, humans are set to return to the Moon and establish permanent or long-term space stations and surface bases. This milestone will mark the first human settlement in outer space, open to participation and contributions from all nations.

Initially, access to the Lunar base will be restricted to a select few, but as infrastructure develops, we can anticipate that regular researchers and even space enthusiasts might gain access. This transition will signify the commercialization of space travel as the Lunar base receives more traffic.

Currently, the OST remains effective and is likely to hold up during our lifetimes, even as we venture into manned missions to Mars and Venus. However, in a few hundred years, commercial interests might drive companies to establish bases on celestial bodies for resource extraction, space tourism, or agricultural endeavors. These activities could challenge the OST, potentially leading to amendments or new regulations.

In the distant future, as humanity expands into space and seeks new territories on other planets, the dynamics will inevitably change. Territorial claims and conflicts, driven by human nature, will arise. Settlers on other planets may begin to see themselves as distinct from their Earth-bound counterparts and seek individual rights, challenging the OST. This could ultimately lead to its breakdown.

While the OST is robust for now, future commercial and territorial interests may necessitate significant changes to its framework.