🧵 Untitled Thread
Anonymous at Thu, 17 Oct 2024 23:56:38 UTC No. 16437161
Are prediction markets reliable for calculating the mathematical probability of events?
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 00:16:56 UTC No. 16437198
>>16437161
Not even Hillary's odds were that bad and people despised her, Harris is pretty milquetoast
No way in hell the odds are anything past 47 - 53 at this point
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 00:17:24 UTC No. 16437199
>>16437161
> Hawaii still going blue
LMAO
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 00:18:01 UTC No. 16437200
>>16437161
>Are prediction markets reliable for calculating the mathematical probability of events?
If they were, there would be no point in betting markets because nobody would take the bet against.
Also, different forecasters would all agree on the outcome, but they often don't.
My point here is DON'T FLUSH YOUR MONEY DOWN THE TOILET MAKING BETS.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 00:20:21 UTC No. 16437204
>>16437161
Not in this case since the election will probably be rigged on local level just like last time (fake ballots, unreliable counting and reporting of vote numbers, etc.)
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 00:24:42 UTC No. 16437212
>>16437199
Hawaii is only like 20% white, of course it's blue
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 00:27:59 UTC No. 16437219
>>16437166
Common Elite Theory W
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 00:35:16 UTC No. 16437233
>>16437161
It's not calculating anything.
It's using a method that Aristotle called
WISDOM OF THE CROWDS.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 01:19:05 UTC No. 16437279
>>16437161
Presumably about as good as betting odds are in predicting outcomes of sporting events. Which is to say, pretty good.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 01:32:38 UTC No. 16437287
>>16437161
https://www.realclearpolling.com/el
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 10:07:56 UTC No. 16437655
>>16437279
lmao
🗑️ Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 10:56:55 UTC No. 16437688
>>16437166
The problem is, there are women who would gladly rig the results of the election so Trump loses.
The morality of it does not matter to them because "Orange Man BAD!"
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 13:05:07 UTC No. 16437832
>>16437161
Prediction markets are based on a couple of assumptions: one is that people putting in their money are doing so with an expectation of getting a positive monetary return on the money they put it and another is that some players in the market will have insider information that they use to give themselves an advantage. This can surface hidden trends that aren't otherwise apparent.
The first assumption doesn't account for people putting money into the market as a way of shaping perception. Players can accept the above average risk of losing money if there's a chance they can change the underlying event the market is trying to predict.
The second assumption is that hidden information will be discovered by enough players in the market to move the market enough for the trend to be surfaced, even if the specific cause still isn't known. After 9/11 the US government created a prediction market for terrorist attacks because some entity like RAND thought it could be a way of discovering terrorist plans or at least surfacing periods of increased risk. When the public learned about the market, there was outrage over the government creating a way for people to profit from gambling on terrorism, so the market was shuttered.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 13:33:40 UTC No. 16437868
>>16437161
https://x.com/domahhhh/status/18465
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 13:58:28 UTC No. 16437907
>>16437868
schizophrenia from literal who? and so?
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 14:41:27 UTC No. 16437979
>>16437161
Basically the prediction markets are just a form of poll of what people believe the odds to be. If popular opinion is wrong the prediction market odds will be wrong too.
In the case of this presidential election all the models based on polls have Trump and Harris at around 50-50 (with one or the other having a slight edge). But the opinion of enough people betting on the prediction market is that Trump has a history of outperforming his polls which is possibly a systematic effect which is not captured by the models. Will this be true this election? Who knows, but it is having an impact on the prediction market
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 14:48:43 UTC No. 16437986
>>16437161
One clear way to see that prediction markets are not reliable is to see that at late as June and July Michelle Obama was given a nontrivial chance of being the next president. This is despite her explicitly saying she had no plans to run, and the fact that she had no experience in politics besides being the first lady.
Stupid people bet on these things based on rumors or things that seem plausible to them, so it shouldn't be seen as some kind of oracle.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 14:54:10 UTC No. 16437998
>>16437986
that's just because markets don't follow gaussian distributions but cauchy distributions or some in-between fat-tail distributions
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 15:04:44 UTC No. 16438015
>>16437998
It's because it was wrong.
We could debate the philosophical question of what it means for a models odds to be wrong, but anyone with half a brain could see in Jun 29, 2024 that there was not a 7% chance that Michelle Obama would be president.
In fact there is a test that in principle could be done. Take all of the predictions on Polymarket on Jun 29, 2024 8:00 am and bin them so things like the Michelle Obama question get put into a bin of events with between 5% and 10% chance of happening. Did the events in that bin actually happen between 5% and 10% of the time? Given the nonsense that appears on the Polymarket site, I'm guessing it was much less, and so this is objectively wrong.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 15:18:39 UTC No. 16438050
>>16437161
No. They are only good for measuring exuberance in the market.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 15:23:11 UTC No. 16438060
>>16438015
the probabilities don't line it up in the tail area because all it takes is one uninformed retard to make a stupid bet
however they do line up much better in the middle of the distribution like between the two most popular candidates
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 15:23:58 UTC No. 16438063
>>16438015
Did you short it?
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 15:37:58 UTC No. 16438097
>>16438060
What you are saying sounds plausible, but keep in mind that the Michelle Obama question actually had a high volume of bets, around $150 million dollars. There needs to be a lot of stupid people to hold the price above zero. For comparison, the question of the winner of the presidential election in Pennsylvania has a volume of around $17 million dollars. The latter question tracks very closely with who is going to win the election as a whole, but it has much less volume than the Michelle Obama question. Why is it not similarly susceptible to the bets of lots of stupid people?
>>16438063
Maybe I should have, but it locks up your money until the question is resolved for not much potential gain.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 15:43:11 UTC No. 16438100
>>16438097
You're on.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 21:52:35 UTC No. 16438724
>>16437986
Your entire opinion is invalidated by your willingness to unquestioningly believe a politician's public statements.
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 22:00:37 UTC No. 16438739
>>16437204
RELEASE THE KRAKEN MIGABRO
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 22:02:38 UTC No. 16438743
>>16437688
Trump is the only one we can trust. We need the military to defeat the enemy within
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 22:11:37 UTC No. 16438762
HA HA HA HA
Anonymous at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 22:51:20 UTC No. 16438801
>>16437204
Don't forget the illegal ballots the USPS printed for all the dead people. Why do you think Biden let DeJoy keep his job?
🗑️ raphael at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 22:56:11 UTC No. 16438814
>>16437161
the electoral college is public conviction is irrelevant to the actual event
🗑️ raphael at Fri, 18 Oct 2024 22:57:11 UTC No. 16438816
kamala sol her soul and the black swan of trump took over that logically thats how magick works
Anonymous at Sat, 19 Oct 2024 08:53:07 UTC No. 16439426
“Four accounts on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket that placed large bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, and have been the subject of much online speculation, are owned by non-Americans or a non-American, according to a source familiar with the matter on Friday.”
> tldr: polymarket is manipulated
Anonymous at Sat, 19 Oct 2024 10:53:01 UTC No. 16439535
>>16439426
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/la
>reuters
>anonymous sources
>it's somehow news that foreigners are placing bets on a proposition that only foreigners are allowed to bet on
>bets being whined about only make up 1% of total polymarket bets on the election
>polymarket odds are still in line with other betting sites
>leftys want more scrutiny of betting on elections than the actual elections
tldr: cope
Anonymous at Sat, 19 Oct 2024 11:01:28 UTC No. 16439541
Mouf, now, and then kys fag(keep yourself safe friend at soul)
Anonymous at Sat, 19 Oct 2024 13:55:31 UTC No. 16439712
Anonymous at Sat, 19 Oct 2024 17:17:46 UTC No. 16439988
>>16437161
Isn't this just evidence that people who think Trump will win are more likely to gamble their money away?
Raphael at Sat, 19 Oct 2024 19:03:52 UTC No. 16440177
The electoral college decides who’s president and betting odds show financial conviction so it’s not reliable
Anonymous at Sat, 19 Oct 2024 23:57:06 UTC No. 16440483
>>16439988
It's been proven to be a massive pump, so yes someone is gaming the system to rake in MAGA dollars as they aren't donating to Trump rn.
https://www.newsweek.com/who-polyma
🗑️ Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 01:06:12 UTC No. 16440548
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 01:20:07 UTC No. 16440573
>>16440548
>unmarked graphs
Wow, you cracked the case.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 01:47:34 UTC No. 16440613
>>16437198
>Not even Hillary's odds were that bad
The difference this year is that the Blue Wall (WI, MI and PA) are all on a knife's edge, and if Kamala loses any one of them, that's it. I don't see much hope for NC or GA going blue. NV is irrelevant.
Hillary had substantial single-digit leads in 2016, and (in a monumental act of irony) picrel is fucking over Harris with the Arabs in MI, despite Trump being the reflexively pro-Israel candidate who Bibi loves. If Trump gets elected, he's going to be "Bomb, baby, bomb" to Israel, lol.
>>16440548
These graphs would've been even more fucked in 2016, which is why everyone believed in a Russian hack. They were fucked in 2020 because of COVID and the quarantines...once again, more irony, because it was the Democrats who were pro-quarantine.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 02:06:36 UTC No. 16440646
>>16437198
>Not even Hillary's odds were that bad
Polymarket didn't exist in 2016 but Hillary was over 80% on Predictit for all of October.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/d
>people despised her, Harris is pretty milquetoast
Hatred of Hillary was always personal. She was just a grating bitch that people generally liked less and less the more they were exposed to her, same as Kamala. Hillary was nepo and Kamala is DEI, but at least Hillary had a triple digit IQ.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 02:36:42 UTC No. 16440681
>>16440646
An Episode of the Sopranos has the mafia wives hating on Hillary for accepting her husband back after he cheated on her. MAGAs now get mad if you even hint Melania hates Trump for doing the same thing.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 02:50:20 UTC No. 16440691
>>16437204
>>16438801
/pol/tards actually believe this shit after all these years. Same for the a stupid vax shit. Do you revel in being a fucking retard or are you completely oblivious to it.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 03:02:06 UTC No. 16440698
Fabricated predictions => manufactured consensus => good predictions
If your prediction influences the system in favor of the prediction because of the prediction, is it still a prediction? I'd say no, it's some kind of stochastic self-fulfilling prophecy. James Lindsay had some video about George Soros having a theory of "Reflexivity" that would line up pretty well here.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 03:04:50 UTC No. 16440702
>>16440681
>confusing TV with reality
>confusing ignoring you with getting mad
>>16440691
All attempts to meaningfully investigate voter fraud were blocked by the courts or local governments. Even today they're still throwing election officials in jail for attempting to preserve 2020 voting data. Instead of addressing concerns substantively anyone making allegations was censored and attacked, as you are doing right now. In this environment the *default assumption* must be that the election was fraudulent and unfortunately for everyone it's too late now to credibly prove whether that's true or false. Endless appeals to authority will never change that.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 04:42:08 UTC No. 16440769
>>16440681
Similarly, I wonder if Kamala ever suspects Doug is cheating on her like he did on his first wife.
But I suppose Doug wonders if Kamala is still performing fellatio for political promotions like she did for her entire career.
I suppose people in politics just accept this as normal.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:14:21 UTC No. 16440784
>>16440769
An ambitious politiican getting married in her 50s isn't doing it for love.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:15:47 UTC No. 16440787
OP is using weasel words. His "prediction market" is a gambling website, polymarket. No, gamblers are dumb, gambling is inherently stupid, and the gaming website has a conflict-of-interest in getting lots of trump supporters to bet on a sure loser so they can take their money.
OP, this is very obvious to anyone with an IQ higher than 90. Only stupid people gamble. And, to answer your question, Harris will win as Trump has not addressed any of the reasons why he lost four years ago, and he has fired most of the staff responsible for giving him his 2016 victory.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:17:14 UTC No. 16440789
>>16438743
>Trump is the only one we can trust. We need the military to defeat the enemy within
This is why I'm voting for Harris. I am not fighting Trump's jewish wars for Israel. What does this have to do with science anyway?
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:20:28 UTC No. 16440791
>>16440789
By far the stupidest shill attack angle of the last decade has been the ones who think calling him out for not being enough of a nazi will work on literally anyone.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:20:38 UTC No. 16440792
>>16440613
Arabs are not voting for the man who says openly he will deport them. You're foolish if you believe otherwise. Trump literally wants them shot, their families separated, and their homelands bombed and replaced with Jewish settlers. They won't vote for Trump, ever. The same for blue collar workers who already rejected Trump once.
Look at Pennslvania with Fetterman. Olsten, like Trump, is weird. The average voter will take anything else, and Kamala is at least a normal person. Harris also believes in science, science spending, and science jobs unlike Trump whose party wants to ban abortion statewide AND ban stem cell research again.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:22:36 UTC No. 16440797
>>16440791
Americans are done fighting stupid middle east wars. They were done in 2008, they were done in 2018, and they're done in 2024. Kamala will get us out of Iraq, Trump will send us back in. People aren't afraid of muslims anymore, or at least they aren't afraid to the point where they will accept a trillion dollars down the toilet trying to control them as Trump wants.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:30:09 UTC No. 16440804
>>16440787
>Trump has not addressed any of the reasons why he lost four years ago
- Republicans have started ballot harvesting themselves instead of just whining about it and trying to ban it
- People have seen what democratic government looks like and polls show they hate it
- Whatever remaining influence the media and other anti-Trump institutions had in 2020 has eroded even farther
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:32:01 UTC No. 16440808
>>16440792
>Olsten, like Trump, is weird.
No, wait, I retract >>16440791. The stupidest attack angle of the last decade is the "weird" thing.
>>16440797
>Trump is the pro-war candidate
This one's up pretty high on the list too.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:34:08 UTC No. 16440811
>>16440804
Trump:
>banned bumpstocks, took peoples' guns away and won't apologize for it
>didn't build the wall and increased immigration by not punishing companies that hired illegal labor
>failed to defend Europe from Russia
>allowed 2/3rds of the country to ban abortion, fucking up millions of peoples' healthcare
>also wants to ban stem cell research and most biotech research
>will defund NASA
>will finish defunding the US Postal Service
>will completely destroy Amtrak
He's a big pussy like Obama and hates science like Bush.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:35:27 UTC No. 16440813
>>16440808
Trump wants war with Iran. He said it himself.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:40:03 UTC No. 16440818
>>16440811
>>banned bumpstocks, took peoples' guns away and won't apologize for it
Still better for guns than Harris.
>>didn't build the wall
Not for lack of trying
>>failed to defend Europe from Russia
Not my problem.
>>the rest
good
>>16440813
>He said it himself
>*pic of Trump saying something totally different*
https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:44:50 UTC No. 16440822
>>16440818
>Still better for guns than Harris.
No he isn't. He took my gun with executive order, something even Bill Clinton and Obama did not do. He's worse than any Democrat. He's a traitor. Trump is a liar. I use the USPS to pay my bills, Amtrak to go to work and I beilive in space exploration. If you don't care, then get off /sci/
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:46:45 UTC No. 16440823
>>16440818
I dunno who this "Jack" guy from twitter is, but here's Trump himself saying how much he wants war with Iran.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:51:10 UTC No. 16440827
>>16440822
>He took my gun with executive order
A bump stock isn't a gun, which you would know if you weren't false flagging.
>I use the USPS to pay my bills
What's the weather like back in 1990?
>Amtrak to go to work
Lol bus trash.
>I beilive in space exploration
What's that got to do with NASA?
>>16440823
>I dunno who this "Jack" guy from twitter is,
He's the guy who posted the video of Trump saying the exact opposite of what you're pathetically trying to claim he thinks by posting tweets of him saying unrelated things.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:53:19 UTC No. 16440829
>>16440827
>A bump stock isn't a gun, which you would know if you weren't false flagging.
Visa, Mastercard, the FBI and Trump's BATF didn't care. I had to register or it or crush it. I chose to crush it because I refuse to pay $200 for the government to track me. Trump crushed my gun.
I will never, ever vote Republican or for that liar Trump ever again.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 05:54:38 UTC No. 16440830
>>16440827
>He's the guy who posted the video of Trump saying the exact opposite of what you're pathetically trying to claim he thinks by posting tweets of him saying unrelated things.
So you're saying Trump is a liar and Jack P. is also a liar. I agree.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 06:00:07 UTC No. 16440831
>>16440829
You could've just removed the bump stock but I guess you were too retarded for that. Or you're just making shit up.
>>16440830
Ignoring you until you can post literally anything where Trump advocates for US military involvement in this or any other war.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 06:02:17 UTC No. 16440833
>>16440831
>You could've just removed the bump stock but I guess you were too retarded for that. Or you're just making shit up.
Nope. Not when the BATF interprets it differently. This was directly on Trump's orders with how he wrote his Executive Order banning them. You're not American.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 06:03:41 UTC No. 16440835
>>16440831
>Ignoring you until you can post literally anything where Trump advocates for US military involvement in this or any other war.
I've done so several times in this thread. Support for Israel is support for Israeli wars. You might not think that, but the average person does. Americans have been fighting Israel's wars for twenty-two (22) years now. Americans know what Support Israel really means: wars for them, dying for Jews, and Jewish control of their government.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 06:09:47 UTC No. 16440838
>>16440833
Could you *please* educate yourself on the basics of how guns work before you try to larp as a gun nut online?
>>16440835
>if I pretend to be a tinfoil nazi they'll agree with me because I'm convinced they're all tinfoil nazis too
Trump voters either support Israel or don't give a crap one way or the other. In 2024 the anti-Israel demographic is purely left wing.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 11:35:02 UTC No. 16441038
>>16440681
And, as we all know, all MAGAs are mafia wives, which is why this comparison makes perfect sense.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 12:15:09 UTC No. 16441075
Aren't betting markets like that illegal for actual US citizens to gamble in?
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 12:40:30 UTC No. 16441096
>>16439988
No, this is the FORECASTS made by polymarkets - they even hired nate nickle (formerly of new york times) to advise them on how to build the model.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 12:49:45 UTC No. 16441105
>>16440822
He is a democrat, but the democrats will never criticize him for stuff conservatives oppose. Most republicans aren't conservatives.
They're both moral degenerates no matter how you slice it.
>>16440811
Abortion is murder, baby killer. Life starts are conception both scientifically and Biblically. You psychopaths deny science.
>>16440833
Did Trump ever recant for saying "take the guns first, go through due process second"?
>>16440835
Don't forget being the scapegoat for the wars they want fought in the sandbox and all their neighbors they want weakened. God hasn't been blessing America since the late 1940s when the counterfeit Israel was founded by the Rothschilds.
>>16440838
You're just a zionist race-worshipper/jewish-supremacist shill. Scripture condemns this sort of race worship heresy and the curses of God are on you when you bless those who hate God and the Jews hate God and they don't have God because they don't have the Son and they slander Christians with their hate groups like the ADL or SPLC and work to prevent the spreading of the gospel of the Lord Jesus Christ (same as it ever was).
It's also ironic when the jewish supremacist nazis call others "nazis", they even have their own little genocide going for them. You can try LARPing as a conservative, but people like you are deceived neocons at best and Christ-denying psychopathic jewish supremacist nazis at worst.
Don't think I don't know what's written in the Talmud.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 16:43:15 UTC No. 16441364
>>16440646
Isn't Kamala also a nepo baby? Didn't she have an insanely privileged upbringing?
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 16:51:55 UTC No. 16441370
>>16437204
Preordainments can be priced in.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 18:06:24 UTC No. 16441452
I remember in 2020 when Joe Biden had worse odds Than Trump on some sites because MAGA people + republicans operatives betted much more than democrats.
These bets are another grifting tool for Trump if he loses the election.
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 18:13:21 UTC No. 16441460
lol no
Anonymous at Sun, 20 Oct 2024 18:30:30 UTC No. 16441477
This thread was moved to >>>/pol/485409014