Anonymous at Wed, 6 Nov 2024 23:24:50 UTC No. 16465462

>>16465458
50/50

It either happens or it doesnt

Anonymous at Wed, 6 Nov 2024 23:26:00 UTC No. 16465463

Anonymous at Wed, 6 Nov 2024 23:44:41 UTC No. 16465476

>>16465458
It's not a matter of statistics, but control theory. Parties in a democratic system adjust to the needs of the electorate.

In a two party system, if party A gets an overwhelming majority of the vote, it forces party B to adjust its policy to swing the electorate back. This functions as negative feedback to part A getting a monopoly on the electorate. We see this with how, for example, the Republican party has slowly stopped calling out fags for being fags.

Now, if party B does ultimately fail to counteract party A, party A would essentially become the only party in the country. The polarization of the electorate remains the same, however, so party A splits into two competing parties. This is what happened to the Democratic-Republican party when the Federalist party collapsed.

Anonymous at Wed, 6 Nov 2024 23:52:12 UTC No. 16465483

>>16465476
is there a name for the phenomena? sounds like some kind of self-organization thing

Anonymous at Wed, 6 Nov 2024 23:55:30 UTC No. 16465486

>>16465483
Yes, control theory. Neat stuff.

Anonymous at Thu, 7 Nov 2024 00:01:09 UTC No. 16465497

>>16465458
fairly common because all candidates are the same and its a 50-50 flop who you end up supporting.
Plus, contrarians make sure it stays at 50. Anyone gets too popular, the contrarian opposes

Anonymous at Thu, 7 Nov 2024 10:36:14 UTC No. 16465900

>>16465486
Is this an actual mathematical theory or just a bunch of intuitive social ideas?

Anonymous at Thu, 7 Nov 2024 13:11:55 UTC No. 16465954

>>16465900
NTA but control theory is a real mathematical discipline (that mostly focuses on things like control of physical or digital systems, but is occasionally applied to social systems like this). If you have a decent math background (at least ODE's, linear algebra and some basic probability) you should check out Brogan's Modern Control Theory textbook.

Anonymous at Thu, 7 Nov 2024 16:13:37 UTC No. 16466130

>>16465476
>democracy experiences free market forces.
Just cut out the middleman of government and let the market be free.

Anonymous at Thu, 7 Nov 2024 20:30:37 UTC No. 16466375

>>16465458
This is the result of media tailoring opinion.

Anonymous at Thu, 7 Nov 2024 20:36:54 UTC No. 16466386

>>16465476
Staticians develop equations t o deal with all sorts of outcomes. Do you expect us to believe that they can't calculate this and it is left up to something as obtuse as 'control theory'?

>>16465497
Are Trump and Kamala in the eyes if the electorate? No. Invalidates your other points.

Anonymous at Thu, 7 Nov 2024 21:12:46 UTC No. 16466428

>>16466386
Control theory is necessary because the system is constantly receiving feedback. How do you want to model something where your variables keep changing without modeling how the change of variables affects the system?

Anonymous at Thu, 7 Nov 2024 23:08:26 UTC No. 16466560

>>16465954
Im a physicist and i know what maths physicists study (calculus, complex calculus, linear algebra, diff equations, differential geometry) and i never saw what new maths this disciplines ever had (control and game theory). These just use a bunch of differential equations, and are closer to physics than math, in the same way than many physical systems are described by some equation. New mathematical discipline? I dont see how differential equations are new

Anonymous at Thu, 7 Nov 2024 23:12:11 UTC No. 16466562

>>16466386
>Are Trump and Kamala in the eyes if the electorate?
I dont know what you mean but the answer is yes. People support one politician over another randomly so you put any random people to run for office, roughly half the people will go for one. Its fairly random on a personal level

Anonymous at Fri, 8 Nov 2024 08:58:00 UTC No. 16466946

>>16465458
>likelihood
It depends on what you assume. It's not really something you can estimate because parties adjust their platform to bring themselves close to 50% but not 60%. For instance republicans now embrace homosexuality because they think they have to to win, same with Democrats wanting to crack down on illegal immigration. If they could keep winning without doing this they probably would have. They wouldn't make more concessions than they have to in order to win, therefore they're both incentivised to aim for the bare minimum.

Anonymous at Fri, 8 Nov 2024 09:35:49 UTC No. 16466973

It's Duverger's law which says that only two candidates emerge from a multi-candidate pool,
combined with median voter theorem in which the major two candidates are pushed to the middle ground for more votes creating a close race.

🗑️ Anonymous at Fri, 8 Nov 2024 09:54:19 UTC No. 16466980

>>16465476
Control theory dictate we must expel the jews