🧵 It's 50%
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 12:12:28 UTC No. 16495040
The probability is literally 3/6 = 0.50% -- there are 3 boxes out of 6. If you disagree, prove otherwise WITHOUT using Bayes or the "law" of total probabilities or other made up nonsense (and no this is NOT the Monthly Hall problem)
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 12:14:28 UTC No. 16495041
Gamblers fallacy, it's 2.05/6
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 12:58:20 UTC No. 16495063
>>16495040
When you pick a golden ball, you don't know which box the golden ball came from. You had two times the probability of picking box 1 given that you got a golden ball, and there now 3 balls left.
2 of them are gold, one of them is silver.
It's really simple OP.
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 16:18:10 UTC No. 16495205
>>16495040
I don't know any of the stated theorems, but using logic, the answer should be 40%.
Case 1: you picked the ball from the box with 2 gold balls (50%)
Case 1.1: You pick the same box again (get)
Case 1.2: You pick the mixed box and pick silver (not get)
Cade 1.3: pick mixed and get gold (get)
Case 1.4: pick mixed and get silver 1 (not get)
Case 1.5: pick mixed and get silver 2 (not get)
Case 1 has a probability to get a gold ball of 40%
Case 2: picked ball from mixed box
Case 2.1: same box again (not get)
Case 2.2: picked gold box 1 (get)
Case 2.3: picked gold box 2 (get)
Case 2.4: picked silver box 1 (not get)
Case 2.5: picked silver box 2 (not get)
Again case2 has a probability of 40%
50% * 40% + 50% * 40% = 40%
raphael at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 16:37:18 UTC No. 16495234
>>16495040
30%? my brain is fried from jerking off
raphael at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 16:47:10 UTC No. 16495239
>>16495234
shiee is 25%
raphael at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 16:47:41 UTC No. 16495241
>>16495041
fucking retard
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 16:50:50 UTC No. 16495242
>>16495205
This is an overcomplicated way of saying there are 2 gold balls and 3 silver balls left after the initial box pick. The boxes don't matter and don't really change anything. 2/(2+3) = 40%.
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 17:38:48 UTC No. 16495275
>>16495040
I am not in the mood to simulate it, last time I correctly simulated problem here, somebody was attacking me with his code being better and shorter, but didn't really simulate the thing.
I'm laughted at, because I told people who make their own sea salt, that they're going to have iodine deficiency.
So for today, fuck you internet!
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 17:49:35 UTC No. 16495289
2/5
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 17:55:38 UTC No. 16495291
>>16495040
Science has proven time after time that it simply can't answer this question, so let's just agree to a compromise: It's 62 %.
raphael at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 18:49:12 UTC No. 16495347
>>16495275
i was right
raphael at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 18:52:21 UTC No. 16495348
>>16495289
>>16495291
>>16495205
>>16495063
>>16495041
shiee i was right but this anon got 2.06 out of 6 which is more precise
🗑️ Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 18:56:46 UTC No. 16495350
>>16495040
Label the boxes, A, B, C. Label the six balls:
Gold: A.1, A.2, B.1
Silver: B.2, C.1, C.2
When you pick the first ball it was either A.1, A.2, or B.1. There is a 2/3 chance you are in box A, so there is a 2/3 chance you will pick a second gold ball.
This is pretty simple right?
When you pick a ball there are 6 possible choices. Half are silver, half are gold. We throw away the silver possibilities, since we know it was gold.
>Left box
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 18:57:53 UTC No. 16495352
>>16495040 (OP)
Label the boxes, A, B, C. Label the six balls:
Gold: A.1, A.2, B.1
Silver: B.2, C.1, C.2
When you pick the first ball it was either A.1, A.2, or B.1. There is a 2/3 chance you are in box A, so there is a 2/3 chance you will pick a second gold ball.
This is pretty simple right?
raphael at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:06:21 UTC No. 16495363
>>16495352
noob
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:22:04 UTC No. 16495373
>>16495040
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty
>>16495041
Likelihood not idependent
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 21:01:30 UTC No. 16495453
>>16495205
How can you possibly go through all cases and STILL get the wrong answer?
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 21:04:50 UTC No. 16495459
>>16495242
YOU STUPID FUCK! THERE ARE ONLY FOUR (4) BALLS LEFT NOT FIVE (5) IT'S 2/4 = 1/2
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 21:11:52 UTC No. 16495469
>>16495205
Let the boxes be labeled 1, 2, and 3. 1 being the box with two golden balls, two the mixed box, and three box with two silver balls. Let the left and right side balls be a and b respectively for each box.
Based on the outcome of the first draw, you either drew: 1a, 1b, or 2a.
If you drew 1a, your next ball will be 1b (gold)
If you drew 1b, your next ball will be 1a (gold)
If you drew 2a, your next ball will be 2b (silver)
There are three possible outcomes for the draw, two of which involve drawing a gold ball. Ergo 2/3rds.
All three microstates (draws) are equally likely, but the two possible macrostates (gold or silver) are not.
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 21:26:40 UTC No. 16495494
>>16495469
>If you drew 1a, your next ball will be 1b (gold)
Or 2a, or 2b, or 3a, or 3b
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 21:33:17 UTC No. 16495503
Probability is a scam, things either happens or they dont.
raphael at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 22:44:39 UTC No. 16495555
>>16495503
holy shit lmfao
Anonymous at Wed, 27 Nov 2024 23:53:35 UTC No. 16495617
>>16495040
That problem statement is retarded, because it makes it sound like you get no additional information from picking a gold ball knowing the layout. What you can do with that information is decide whether to pick from another box or not.
Knowing the layout and the ball color gives you additional information regarding your box pick and increases your chances for another gold pick, because the two aren't independent.
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 00:01:07 UTC No. 16495630
>>16495494
it doesn't matter in what order the boxes or balls form that layout
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 00:01:35 UTC No. 16495631
>>16495617
It doesn't say that your goal is to pick another gold ball.
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 00:02:35 UTC No. 16495632
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 00:02:57 UTC No. 16495633
Run this python script, it consistently returns results in about 333 every time.
_
from random import choice
gold_count = 0
for i in range(1000):
draw = choice([[0, 0], [0, 1], [1, 1]])
select1 = draw.pop(choice([0,1]))
select2 = draw.pop()
if select1==0 and select2 == 0:
gold_count += 1
print(gold_count)
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 00:04:24 UTC No. 16495636
>>16495633
indenting didn't work, just translate carefully
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 00:07:36 UTC No. 16495642
>>16495631
does that make the problem less pointless?
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 00:30:32 UTC No. 16495666
Label the boxes as so:
[G1 G2] [G3 S1] [S2 S3].
Probability of picking any Gold (so any of G1, G2 or G3) on the first round is 1/2.
Probability of picking any two Golds in a row (so any permutation of length 2 of Gi,Gj) is 1/3.
Therefore the final probability is [math] \frac{6}{\pi^2} [\math] accounting for hypothetical dark number.
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 01:08:33 UTC No. 16495701
>>16495040
>you have a 50% chance of winning the lottery
>either you win or you dont
Just increase the amount of balls to make it more obvious:
Box A:
99 gold
Box B:
1 gold, 99 silver
Box C:
100 Silver
You grab a ball from a box at random
Its gold.
Chances to have picked out the single gold ball among 99 silver balls from Box B should be pretty small, no?
there's only a 1% chance your hand was in Box B, and a 99% chance your hand was in Box A.
Sounds logical right?
Simmilarly in the original poster problem, chances to have picked the box with the 2 gold ball must be higher than having picked the mixed one. 2/3 vs 1/3 in this case.
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 01:39:20 UTC No. 16495729
>>16495040
66% in this version. 50% in the original, which starts with "You pull out a gold ball from a box".
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 01:46:32 UTC No. 16495734
>>16495040
Am I being elaborately trolled? It's fifty percent.
>you take a ball
> if it is gold ball
THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE QUESTION
>what is probability the next ball is gold?
2 balls it could possibly be, silver or gold, so it is fifty fifty. Y'all retarded fr
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 07:07:06 UTC No. 16495967
>>16495729
It's 50% regardless. Just count all the possibilities you always get 50%
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 08:32:16 UTC No. 16496015
>>16495494
>Check's OP's image
40% (two gold balls out of five remaining), and the OP is a giant baiting faggot for changing the text.
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 09:50:07 UTC No. 16496037
Are you guys all stupid or something? It's four ninths.
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 09:52:24 UTC No. 16496039
>>16495040
low iq post
Anonymous at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 11:46:44 UTC No. 16496101
>>16496015
That's a weird way of saying 50%
Nana at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 11:51:44 UTC No. 16496103
>>16496101
34%
Anonymous at Fri, 29 Nov 2024 22:12:20 UTC No. 16497613
>>16495275
what is there to simulate? 3 scenarios, 2 of them give you a win. 2/3. That's it. There's literally nothing more to it
Anonymous at Sat, 30 Nov 2024 04:58:30 UTC No. 16497906
>>16495666
Why the inverse of the 1/n^2 series?
Anonymous at Sat, 30 Nov 2024 06:48:43 UTC No. 16498005
>>16495205
Case 1.1 should happen more often than you say. "Picking a box at random" is different than "picking a ball at random" when the boxes have different numbers of balls.
This is my calculation where 1/6 = 1/3 * 1/2 is the probability of choosing the middle box when it has a gold and silver ball:
1/3 * (1/3 + 1/6 + 0) +
1/3 * (1/3 + 1/6 + 0) +
1/3 * (1/3 + 0 + 0) = 4/9
Anonymous at Sat, 30 Nov 2024 15:06:29 UTC No. 16498248
>>16497613
Yea, but it's forbidden to count like that, you need to do proper monte carlo for that.