๐งต Why is it impossible for scientists to predict earthquakes
Anonymous at Fri, 17 Jan 2025 21:57:46 UTC No. 16554343
Scientists predicted a massive SoCal earthquake (98% probability according to their models) and they failed magnificently.
How come they're unable to accurately predict something as commonplace as an earthquake accurately?
They have massive amounts of data to work with, tons of instrumentation and readings to go off of and decades of well measured previous tectonic activity to study. Yet given all that plus enormous budgets to work with and they are still no better at predicting earthquakes than a tarot card reader.
Anonymous at Fri, 17 Jan 2025 22:16:13 UTC No. 16554369
>>16554343
you can never have 100% certainty on anything and any result is valid. in this case you collapsed in the 2%. this reality is weird like that
Anonymous at Fri, 17 Jan 2025 23:41:21 UTC No. 16554507
>>16554343
Why can't YOU predict earthquakes?
Anonymous at Sat, 18 Jan 2025 00:11:04 UTC No. 16554546
>>16554343
Why don't you tell me how they're supposed to do that
Anonymous at Sat, 18 Jan 2025 00:30:30 UTC No. 16554564
>>16554343
>Scientists
[citation needed]
Anonymous at Sat, 18 Jan 2025 07:39:38 UTC No. 16554882
>>16554343
The earthquake did happen though. Hello?
Anonymous at Sat, 18 Jan 2025 09:55:07 UTC No. 16554944
>>16554343
That site is run by an MBA from a for-profit college. He has no science training.
Anonymous at Sat, 18 Jan 2025 10:24:47 UTC No. 16554963
>>16554343
The forces and resistance to forces in the Earth's crust as it crumbles and reshapes over time are chaotic. This means very small details can greatly effect where and when an earthquake actually occurs. Also, our ability to measure such details from the surface are very limited. The best we can do is make general statistical estimates that cover large spans of time on the order of decades. Any one trying to nail down predictions to hours or days is just being foolish.
Anonymous at Sat, 18 Jan 2025 10:37:37 UTC No. 16554969
>>16554963
Retard
Anonymous at Sat, 18 Jan 2025 12:41:51 UTC No. 16555064
>>16554969
Then tell us how to predict earthquakes
Anonymous at Sun, 19 Jan 2025 02:02:25 UTC No. 16555858
>>16554963
>cover large spans of time on the order of decades
making predictions which cover such a long span of time that the people making the prediction will be dead or retired before the period of time expires does not fall under the umbrella of the scientific method. scientific theories are disprovable.