🧵 detecting voter fraud with math? shpilkin method aka russian tail
Anonymous at Tue, 18 Feb 2025 21:19:05 UTC No. 16590709
the "russian tail" is cited by outlets such as radio free europe as evidence that elections in Russia[1] and Georgia[2] are rigged. Now redditors use it to claim that the 2024 U.S. presidential election was rigged [3].
The people doing this analysis claim that, if you plot precincts in a histogram by % of votes for a candidate, then you should get a normal distribution (or a "bell curve", as they call it) and any other distribution is evidence of voter fraud. I claim that there's no reason to assume that you should get a gaussian distribution and that the people doing this analysis are retards who suck at math and stats. who's right?
[1] https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/20
[2] https://www.rferl.org/a/georgia-ele
[3] https://www.reddit.com/r/somethingi
Anonymous at Tue, 18 Feb 2025 21:35:21 UTC No. 16590734
>OP is a faggot
So far, 100% of posters itt agree with this statement.
Anonymous at Tue, 18 Feb 2025 22:43:45 UTC No. 16590815
>OP is not a faggot
So far, 100% of posters itt agree with this statement.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 17:39:17 UTC No. 16591613
>>16590709
It doesn't matter because people won't care either way.
This system may as well be dead and the current events may just mark a soft revolution.
Whatever comes out the other side won't be a liberal system involving the public with elements of direct democracy as advocated for by people such as Ron Paul.
Hypernormalisation is incredibly widespread, poverty and hatred is increasing everywhere. It's ideological warfare - further attrition and depletion from here on out.
Hold on to the seats, it'll be a bumpy ride.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 18:27:08 UTC No. 16591658
>>16590709
Math is like negation. It proves nothing.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 18:38:45 UTC No. 16591671
>>16591658
>Bellwether
Lmao, astrology for hack pundits
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 19:33:27 UTC No. 16591719
>>16591671
>candidate who couldn't attract mice to a cornfield
>more votes than black jesus
Again this is why I say math proves nothing.
Anonymous at Thu, 20 Feb 2025 17:51:02 UTC No. 16593169
>>16590709
>if you plot precincts in a histogram by % of votes for a candidate, then you should get a normal distribution
What a pothead take. Why would social phenomena like votes for a party by a municipality always follow a strict normal distribution? In a village of 100 voters that counts as one voting unit (rural) you could easily expect 95% of them to vote for the same party.
Anonymous at Thu, 20 Feb 2025 22:16:43 UTC No. 16593994
>>16590709
>rural people are more conservative
Wow! Truly a shocking revelatoin
Anonymous at Thu, 20 Feb 2025 23:07:03 UTC No. 16594064
>>16590709
Neither election was rigged. Americans voting in swing states truly are just fucking retarded and vote based on completely arbitrary aspects of a persons personality.