🗑️ 🧵 Untitled Thread
Anonymous at Tue, 18 Feb 2025 22:45:24 UTC No. 16590818
This new German study concludes that there is no causal link between migration and higher crime rates. But why do such studies control for age and gender? If migrants in Europe are disproportionately young males, isn't that a factor of the actual reality of migration contributing to crime, not a confounder? Why remove part of the effect you're trying to measure?
Now the authors might say: If we don't control for age and gender, we conflate the effect of migration with the inherent crime propensity of young males. But if the real-world impact of migration inherently includes a disproportion of young males, then not controlling for those variables actually reflects the "true" effect of migration as experienced. So what's the point of this methodology?
https://www.ifo.de/publikationen/20
Anonymous at Tue, 18 Feb 2025 22:47:28 UTC No. 16590822
dont trust any statistic you have not faked yourself
Anonymous at Tue, 18 Feb 2025 23:20:48 UTC No. 16590856
>>16590818
1. Letting a high number of young males immigrate increases the country's crime rate given the inherent crime propensity of young males (not even including potential cultural factors).
2. The reality of European mass migration since 2015 is that the majority of the migrants are young males.
3. Therefore, migration in Europe, as it exists today, increases the overall crime rate.
This seems irrefutable. Now what is the study doing? By controlling for age and gender the study essentially asks:
"If migrants had the same age and gender distribution as natives, would crime increase?"
It assumes an irreal condition to derive an abstracted comparison between two groups. They do this in order to show that there is nothing intrinsic about being a migrant that makes someone more likely to commit crime. But that's irrelevant to measuring the real-world impact of migration. If migration brings in a large number of young males, and young males commit more crimes, then migration as it exists in reality leads to higher crime rates.
So yes, if the study's goal is to assess the actual, lived impact of migration, then controlling for demographic factors obscures rather than clarifies the issue.
Anonymous at Tue, 18 Feb 2025 23:33:26 UTC No. 16590879
How do they define what's considered a "crime"? I always think back to the case of a Muslim immigrant in the UK getting a slap on the wrist for raping teenage girls, while native British men who post negative comments about the rapist, and more generally Muslim people, received harsher criminal sentences, i.e. more jail time than the rapist himself. I'd bet the under-prosecution of immigrants in Europe is intentionally to skew the statistics, to justify pushing for more immigration and replacement of native populations.
Anonymous at Tue, 18 Feb 2025 23:40:56 UTC No. 16590892
>>16590818
Next they'll say people dont die when they are killed
Anonymous at Tue, 18 Feb 2025 23:58:25 UTC No. 16590903
>>16590818
>and then, for no reason at all, people stopped believing in science
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:16:06 UTC No. 16590918
>>16590818
Because the important variable is age and sex, not race or country of origin.
Young men with nothing to do and no hope to improve themselves will turn feral. Stop importing them if you don't need them.
Import little old grandmas or Ukrainian war widows instead.
Learn to analyze.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:20:34 UTC No. 16590921
>>16590903
Wasn't that the goal? Why'd we spend all that industry money to sow mistrust of science if not to sow mistrust of science?
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:23:14 UTC No. 16590922
>>16590818
>So what's the point of this methodology?
literally and entirely to give journalists their desired "The Science confirms that endless brownoid migration is akchually good for the west" headline
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:28:16 UTC No. 16590924
>>16590922
>i liked the local thugs better
says local thug
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:42:56 UTC No. 16590930
>>16590918
>Import little old grandmas
Who needs them either? The elderly are precisely the reason why we're in the mess we are. They refused to have children, but they sure as hell do not refuse pensions.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:49:19 UTC No. 16590933
>>16590930
>Who needs them either?
What part of "don't import people you don't want, need, or use." do you not understand?
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:50:03 UTC No. 16590934
>>16590933
I guess it's the part where you say "Import little old grandmas or Ukrainian war widows instead."
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:53:28 UTC No. 16590939
>>16590934
Yes, import whatever you need.
Don't import what you can't, won't, don't.
Same rules as the buffet, Todd. Just like Mom always said, "Take what you want, but eat all you take."
You make this sound like a mystery.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 01:16:44 UTC No. 16590952
>>16590918
>Because the important variable is age and sex, not race or country of origin.
I can't read nazi so I can't comment on the paper. I just find the number of German car/trucks of peace and the increase in rape and bombings in Sweden difficult to justify with just age and sex. The most likely explanation is that I'm just an unsophisticated rube who is too stupid to believe in science. I guess I'll just keep voting for right wing anti-immigration parties then.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 01:32:34 UTC No. 16590966
>>16590952
you also have to want the people.
come to my country to make money because no locals want these lowpaying jobs that fund the core of our social spending and then act surprised when the dudes try to date and fail your local women
why so many angry brown men on the street these days? why no go home to family?
what make you so angry, Todd. sushi buffet add $10 leftover rice cherge to your bill. you cheapskate, Todd?
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 02:09:32 UTC No. 16590997
>>16590966
>you also have to want the people.
Like Sweden did in the 90's with all the Balkan refugees?
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 02:43:34 UTC No. 16591025
OP's right. We should be importing more brown women.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 03:53:42 UTC No. 16591069
>>16590818
Now also adjust for how many of those young "Germans" aren't White and how many of those foreigners are White(Ukrainian, Polish). They don't even say that adjusted by age and sex they commit not more crime, their main point is that a local increase of foreigners didn't increase local crime within a year. And guess which foreign population caused the biggest local increase in 2022 and 2023? Ukrainians. So what do you think will happen when in "refugee" hotspots there will be an increase with Ukrainians? And basically making the local population Whiter.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 05:22:24 UTC No. 16591109
>>16590818
> there is no causal link between migration and higher crime rates.
Most studies surrounding crime rate are complete bs. People don't even report a lot of small crime anymore. If you talk about generic robberies, violence, rapes, that kind of crime its almost always a north african or turk doing it in germany. The next time germans get genocidal they do a holocaust on the turks rather than the jews lel.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 05:24:11 UTC No. 16591111
>>16590879
Britain is an actual Islamic country though like Saudi Arabia is.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 07:34:06 UTC No. 16591159
>>16590952
>leftist bubble academic
Opinion discarded.
Keep believing your scientists, aka useless detached from the real world theoreticians who syphon money off the state so they can keep hiding behind their academia desks and continue to not do a real job.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 07:52:55 UTC No. 16591165
>>16590818
They do this to see if it truly has to do with their race/iq/genetics/whatever immutable property of the migrants. Racists and non racists alike are both interested in this topic. It’s touchy because you do feel like most migrants you meet are in fact turbo retards that would be living like cavemen if it wasn’t for globalisation and international markets bringing in cars, the smartphone, television and internet to their homes.
The reality is that migrations are simply poorly handled by the EU.they disproportionately accept young males, the most violent group of any demographic. They dont filter out for skills or education. They dont do background checks. It ALWAYS ends up like this regardless of the race. Poles migrating to the UK had this issue. Italians migrating to France had this issue, Spaniards migrating to France as well. Irish people were called the niggers of Europe too. Bring young, uneducated and poor men and you get crime, simple as, them being muslim or not has zero bearings on how they behave, it just gives them different interpretations of the same acts.
>>16590879
This is a meme narrative, most pedo affairs are majoritarily natives, and most pedo affairs are in fact majoritarily related to family and close acquaintances, school teachers and sports coaches rather than a random immigrant showing up and snatching your kids in a park.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 07:58:04 UTC No. 16591170
>>16590952
Right wing parties in Europe are notorious for advocating anti immigration but actually LIFTING visa caps and such. I mean just look at Trump for instance and the H1B issue.
Because their donors are often small business owners or land owners who need low skill human cattle for their factories and farms and reducing immigration is in fact not in their best interest, the issues arise when these very same people start living in their neighbourhood, that’s when they go insane, and then once they get deportations, they go back to tiktok and make videos about how nobody is working at their farm anymore.
Anonymous at Wed, 19 Feb 2025 08:14:51 UTC No. 16591184
>>16591170
You speak of European right-wingers yet onlygive American examples.
Orban, built a fence toclose the border. The immigrants that still arrive he passes on to other EU countries. Denmark, the social democrat government has coopted the right-wing solutions and reduced assylum seekers down to 800 a year. Meloni, has pushed through quite a lot of laws that seriously hinder illegal immigration.